In a world of collective existence and mutual-cooperation, Brexit is indeed the stunning news. But it happened, called “Dawn of a new era” with promises of “real national renewal.” The quest is still a nightmare for populists that are emotionally driven with empty slogans. But realities help those who never live in logical fallacies and idealism. It was a public skeptical and emotional decision taken by the residents of the UK, fearing massive migrants’ influx, terrorism, economic and security issues.
The European Union is perhaps passing through the crucial crossroad of history. The outbreak of pandemic Covid19 brought the EU to grip the crisis and the looming sword over the fate of the transition period. European Union joint committee on Brexit must agree to a good deal as an extension in the transition period or no value at all at the start of July. The lousy agreement at the time of the COVID19 situation will trigger the economic turmoil. The political negotiations may become a ray of hope even if the transition period is over at the strict deadline by the end of the year. The EU leaders have to decide the quickfire deal either by game-manship or brinkmanship.
Being an optimist, I have seen the brighter side of the Brexit that is strict point-based immigrants’ rules. Many migrants across the world enter the EU with fake identities by hook or crook, risking the lives of EU citizens. Brexit will help the UK bring a system of evaluation, assessing data and securing their cities from fake asylum seekers to pursue a good life. Moreover, the UK also wants to counter the global competition in the world market by investing freely like China, Japan and India while the EU bounds the UK in many aspects.
The darker side of Brexit may be referred firstly to its economic crisis followed the transition period. EU-UK post-Brexit trade agreement may apply tariffs on exports and imports. The UK will lose the EU single market rules with the imposition of a new set of globally assigned rules of the World Trade Organization. Both sides will probably create hurdles for each other in the form of technical assistance, licensing and custom duties. This will result in slashing income, shattering the economy, soaring unemployment, rising inflation and damaging the living standard in the UK, particularly and the EU in general. The UK played its role as a significant financial contributor after France and Germany, which will bring a tremendous loss of EU of €9.3bn each year. UK has to pay the £39bn as a withdrawal bill, which will carry a burden on the UK’s economy. Many businesses have moved their offices from the UK to the EU member states, thus creating a void of technical assistance, research, environmental, medicine and banking sectors. The UK will lose the public contracts bidding in the EU member countries. The housing industry will face a huge deficit and lose its vast market across the EU-UK. There will be a shortage of labor in the UK and the EU after the constraints on immigration. The UK has already pushed its financial center, London, to a depressed growth rate from 1.4% in 2018, to zero in 2019.
Furthermore, the anti-immigrant forces will blow the flames of anti-EU sentiment, encouraging eurosceptic movements. Seeing the situation, voices may rise in France and Germany, thus stressing for leaving the EU, which will collapse the EU financially. The UK may lose Scotland soon after Brexit as it voted against Brexit. In short, the Brexit will badly affect the euro currency, foreign policy, border management, security measures, immigration and the EU budget.
The Brexit brings no hope to the global order. Japan has a massive investment in the UK and the EU in different sectors with physical assets. The immediate decline in the pound and crisis amid Brexit in the EU will badly affect Japan. Since Japan doesn’t have any political interests in the EU-UK apparatus, it will try its luck to sustaining a balance sheet on its own. The Middle East and Gulf countries will be badly affected post-Brexit crisis, which will create a void in the market that could be filled with any Asian or other developed countries. Israel has been more politically conscious envisions economic, political, regional and global interests in the Brexit. Most interestingly, EU-UK has an investment in Africa, whereas most African countries enjoy huge humanitarian aids that will bring intensive damage to its foundations. Likewise, third world countries who are victims of terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan will lose hope of the developmental projects and rehabilitation processes. These projects have brought mainly a transformation in the lives and political scenarios of these countries. Students from across the world facing strict immigration rules will lose hope in acquiring admissions to UK and EU top universities, risking their futures.
Unlike Japan, Chinese investments are mostly indirect finance and real estate, bringing less damage to UK-EU after Brexit. China is tricky on the Brexit apparatus taking advantage of divided Europe. China will urge for a bilateral beneficial free trade deal with the UK and EU. The tariffs, custom systems, newly build institutions, and UK-EU trade competition will make them dependent on China. China will take intrinsic economic benefits, “Belt and Road Initiative,” and advocacy of Chinese interest in market economy status (MES). China will try to back any EU member state for practices of dumping trade as the EU Commission does not have the calculated points countering it like WTO. Granting China with MES will infuriate the trade conflict between the US and China, which will trap EU-UK in a narrow room; accord with one is the discord with the other on international fora. China will benefit from a dump attitude from UK-EU political figures in the walk of Chinese interest in the Middle East, Human rights abuses in eastern China, Hong Kong status and authoritarian Chinese regime. There would be a high price for EU-UK, which will raise a debate on whether China being skeptic or Friendly.
The United States of America is one of the largest single trade partners in the UK. The US also has good relations with the EU on political and economic fronts. Brexit will favor the US from the UK’s perspective but exacerbate political outlook. America always needed the EU as integrated and united for global peace, regional stability and economic certainties. Additionally, there is a broad possibility of America doing an excellent and amicable trade deal with the UK. The US-UK deal, if negotiated, ratified and implemented, will help the UK rediscover muscles in economic willpower and boosting its economy with an estimation of 0.16% rise in it. America will, however, find it significantly harsher to deal with disintegrated Europe on issues like North Korea, Afghanistan, Iran, Nuclear non-proliferation, climate issues, Middle East Crisis and others.
Russia has sensed opportunities in a divided Europe. British being the zealous critic opposing Russian aggressions and strongly favoring the sanctions on Russia, will now be weakened with a No-UK-EU. It may emerge as an economic giant filling the void resulting from post-Brexit and Sino-US trade war in EU as well as UK markets. To conclude, the Brexit has either brought opportunities or mysteries for countries across the world. Still, it has pushed the fate of its citizens into risk, waiting for sophisticated deals at ticking clocks.
Muhammad Salal is pursuing his degree in Civil Engineering. He has worked for youth development, peace and CVE and been nominated for N-peace Award. He has also won about 14 national and provincial levels of writing competition and participated in international writing competitions. He is also working as a young researcher with UNOY for South Asian Region.